72. The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the business manager of a department store.
Local clothing stores reported that their profits decreased, on average, for the three-month period between August 1 and October 31. Stores that sell products for the home reported that, on average, their profits increased during this same period. Clearly, consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing. To take advantage of this trend, we should reduce the size of our clothing departments and enlarge our home furnishings and household products departments.
专卖店的商务经理的备忘录：
当地服饰店报告说从8月1号到十月31号的3个月里他们的平均收益降低。销售家庭用品的商店却报告同期的平均收益上升。非常明显，客户正选择为他们的家购买用品而不是买衣物。为了借助这个趋势，大家应该缩减大家的服饰部规模而扩大伙庭装饰和家务用品部
1. A period of three month is too short to draw a general conclusion of the overall trend.
2. The past three months' trend does not guarantee the same in the future.
3. Whether the reports from the local clothing stores and stores that sell products for the home are reliable or not are still open to doubt, thus making the author's suggestion groundless.
1， 减少和上升，是不是存在势必的关系。忽视他因。
2， 三个月的时间是不是能说明一种趋势？
based upon sales reports over a three-month period that indicate an increase in profits for stores that sell products for the home and a decrease in profits for clothing stores, the business manager of a department store concludes that consumers are choosing to purchase home furnishings rather than clothing. On the basis of this conclusion, the manager recommends a reduction in the size of the clothing department and an increase in the size of the home-furnishings department. This recommendation is problematic in two critical respects.
In the first place, the authors conclusion that consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing is based upon too small a sample. Data gathered from a three-month period is insufficient1 to establish the conclusion drawn2 from it. It is quite possible that the three-month period chosen is idiosyncratic and not representative of entire years sales. If so, reducing the size of the clothing departments and enlarging the home-furnishings departments may be a cosplaytly3 mistake.
In the second place, the data collected during the three month period may be biased4. The fact that the data reflects sales in local stores is cause for concern. It is possible that the sales trend in a particular location is not representative of sales in other regions. For example, sales of clothing in Florida during the winter months are likely to be quite different from sales of clothing in Alaska during the same period.
In conclusion, this argument is not persuasive5 as it stands. A more convincing argument must provide additional sales data, collected at different periods of the year and at different locations, that substantiates6 the trend in question.
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